Dec/05 EVALUATIONS OF THE BASIC ECONOMIC FLOWS

IZIT has, on the base of its original methodology,conducted researches in October at the representative sample connected to the forecasts of economic trands in the next three and six months and according to the following indicators:

Business climate,phisical extent of production inflow of domestic orders,inflow of export orders, stocks of ready made products and purchase prices.

Results of the researches are presented analitically for each noted index for both forecasted time periods:

• There is a stronger optimisme for the future work conditions for the three as well as for the next six months at the Serbian market. This is the result of the expectation of the interviewed economy that the inflation dragon is going to be calmed down in the business 2006 year, but too, of the forecasting of the investment activity which could contribute bigger engagement of production capacities. Data that favour this are optimistic signals that appear at the sectors of production of labor assets and consumer goods.
• In the next three, respectively six months it is counted with the continuation of the growth trend of industrial production, with slightly slower intensity than a month before. Expected a slighly slower growth is more the sesonal result, as well as the smaller number of working days in the coming holiday months. The positive trend in the coming period is counted on by all interviewed groups.
• Continuity is expected within the positive dynamics of the demand from the domestic and foreign markets. It is counted with some weaker intensity of the growth of inflows with domestic and export orders. But this too, can be justified by the influence of the coming sesonal cyclus. In the next three and six months producers of labor assets and intermediates and raw materials are expecting with somehow weaker optimisme than a month ago, while those from the segmet of production of consumer goods are expecting stronger optimisme at the dynamics of inflow of the orders from domestic and foreign markets
• The stocks of ready made products are expected to be worsened. Higher is the number of that part of the intrerviewed industry which in the next three and six months count with unsufficient stocks, from 5% to 12% observed through the three months dioptry, respectively from 6% to 11% observed over six months one. In the same time higher is the number of that interviewed industry which in the next quartal counts with excessive stocks of ready made products (from 19% to 26%). It shows that in the coming period it can be expected a significant disharmony between the volume and the width of production assortment of the interviewed industry from one side and requests of demands, from the other one.
• It is still counted furtheron with a trend of growth of the production prices, with a slightly slower intensity in the next three than in the next six months. Increase in prices in the next quartal is expected by 25% of the interviewed producerd (32% a month ago), and in the next six month 76% of them (52% of them in the previous report). In the forecast of both time periods , price pressure is the most expressive at the sector of consumer goods (in 54% cases in the next three and even in 90% cases in the next six months), and after that at the segment of production of intermediates and raw materials ( in 11% cases in the next quartal and in even 92% cases in the next six months.)