2005-02-10 ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC TRENDS FOR THE NEXT THREE AND SIX MONTHS

Positive expectation regarding business conditions,production flow and influx of orders from domestic and foreign market and the state of stocks, are based on answers from only one quarter of polled economists. Such a small amount of polled ones is also present with estimation of total forecasting as well as with some restrictive production segments.

The economists stick to previously given estimation that some movements of the general business cycle and production upturn can only be expected in the next six months period. For the time being the basic investments are coming from available domestic finance, too modest to offer radical changes in production and work organisation in the whole.

It is important now to pay attention to the answers of polled economists concerning the trends of production prices which rise in the next three months is expected by 20% of those polled.

In the next six months, according to the evaluation of the polled producers, there should be some economic positive movements.The favourable business climate is expected by 64% of polled producers which is close to the forcasting of the previous month. The greatest hope was expressed by 80% of consumers goods, and 77% of raw material producers. The smallest number of the polled who count with improved business conditions, 32% of them, comes from the group of labor means producers.

The production growth in the next six months is expected by 61% of the polled, which is slightly less than in the previous month. The growth of production is mostly expected by the sector of labor means(97% of the polled) and consumer goods producers(66% of the polled), while only 34% producers of basic commodity and raw material count on the growth of their production activities. The expected production trend is usually based on similar expectations of demand trends from domestic and foreign market. This time the reason for more favourable production trend lies in the expected trends of demands from the domestic market, although it is of weaker intensity than a month beforeso that the growth of demands from the domestic market expect 47% of all polled economists (69% a month ago).

Expected trends of domestic demand above average growth are present in the sector of consumer goods (75% polled) and lebor means (55% of the polled)

During the coming six months for the rise of their prices count 55% of polled producers where the highest growth, according to 77% of polled producers, will be in the segments of basic commodity and row material, consumer goods (68%) and labor means (27%). Expectation consernig trends of production prices are realistic, having in mind already involved groth of prices as well as the suggestion for increase of prices for electric energy starting spring this year, which will, all together, effect the strengthening of pressure and further trends of production prices.