PROGNOSIS OF BASIC ECONOMY FLOWS IN NEXT THREE AND NEXT SIX MONTHS

The kind of business ambient in 2004 is characterized by lost expectations and prognosis of interviewed economists, which were more or less optimistic. Although the officials announced very successful business year, for interviewed economists, it had past with constant expectations of better conditions of business. Only by the beginning of second half of 2004, after certain political stabilization and employing the privatization, some positive expectations dived up, but were lost during the autumn. Without accurate signals of bigger changes, very bad privatization during this year and low foreign investments, it was hard to expect more optimism among the economists than done.

Results of latest investigations point on positive business climate in next three months period, what means that we are going with that expectations in first months of 2005 (expected by 45% of interviewed), will be less than this years average of answers (53.7% of interviewed). More or less positive expectations are expected in all goods segments, concerning the big percentage only with retail goods producers (72% of interviewed).

Of course that expected streaming of production is influenced by dynamics of flow of domestic and foreign orders, so 56% or 57% of interviewed are counting with its increasing in next three months (compared to 58% and 47% in previous month). In all production sectors less interviewed are expecting reduced flow of domestic orders, except with retail goods (expected by 73% of interviewed).

In the sector of claims from foreign markets, it is noted increasing of total flow of orders (total 57% of interviewed compared to 47% a month ago), and especially with retail goods and raw materials and intermediates.

In next three months 28% of interviewed producers of tools for work, 9% of retailers expect growth of their prices.

In next six months period, expectations are also low, so on positive business climate counts 65% of interviewed (65% last month). Over average expectations are shown with producers of tools for work and retail goods producers, while on the sector of raw materials and intermediates, the percentage is a bit lower.

Growth of production in next period is expected by more interviewed than last month (72% compared to 55%), while it is exposed with all producers groups.

Expected streaming of production is stimulated with expected streaming of domestic and foreign claims, which have stronger intensity than last month. 69% of total interviewed are expecting the growth of orders from domestic markets (64% a month ago), and these over – expectations are present also with tools for work and retail goods. Growth of export claims in next six months period is expected by 87% of interviewed producers (70% a month ago), concerning that tools for work have over average expectations.

In next six months period on growth of their prices counts 48% of interviewed producers of tools for work, 44% of producers of raw materials and intermediates, as well as 33% of producers of retail goods, what is much higher percentage compared to last months expectations.

Expectations concerning streaming of prices are quite real, concerning higher prices for electric energy, which will, together with other price jumps, have influence on further creating of producer’s prices.