"The Conjuncture Test"

Methodological solution of IZIT for the market research

During the creation of the unique methodological solution for the research of the motions on the market, and thanks to the success in making the connections with the great number of foreign institutes treating the same spheres, IZIT has chosen one current method of following and estimation of the conjuncture by The IFO Institute from Munich. This method has already been used and approved by the various famous world Institutes. The whole thing is about the methodology of the conjuncture tests, that has the advantage compared to classic methods, by largest possible number of certain leading indicators that are in due time registration the changes in the production, including the reliable anticipation of streaming in the close future. Today, the Methodology of the conjuncture test is applied widely in over fifty institutes concerning the problems of production.

Conjuncture test by IZIT is the unique method that uses the poll (inquiry) techniques for the accumulation, processing and presenting the information about the present and the expected changes of the basic indicators of the production flows. It relies on knowledge, experience and estimations of great number of people who are directly employed in the production, and are managing their processes. Different than the statistics that accumulates, processes, and presents the quantitative data with ex- post character; with the conjuncture test you can get the qualitative information about the present and future tendencies of the basic economy indicators. So, this test got applicable very fast in the economy researches of the great number of European and non- European countries.

The conjuncture test is applied in industry, building and trading and provides the information about the realized and expected tendencies of production, the domestic and foreign claim, the finalized and expected building businesses, the supplement of the production with the raw and repromaterials, prices of the producers, the retail prices, supplement of goods in trade, the conditions of extra stocks of the final industrial products and in circulation, the supplement of the market with the retail goods, etc.

With application the suitable ponderate system, the accumulated information are processed on the global level, and by the segments.

The conjuncture test by IZIT provides the great number of qualitative information that can be utilized for the actualization of the ex-post statistic dates, and if the longer time series are provided, than the reliability of the test can be checked by their mathematics- statistic quantification.

The exceptional value of the conjuncture test is in making remarks of the non-synchronized streams in due time, those that are oppressing the production, and providing to anticipate the changes in due time and notice the necessity of faster adjustment to the needs of the market, and finally to notify that kinds of following problems in the business.

For the purpose of getting more accurate results about the streaming and estimated flows in the production, from time to time there is innovation and expansion of the samples where the conjuncture tests are applied. The answers on the conjuncture inquiry are provided by 75% of the companies chosen in the sample.