Center for the Conjuncture Researches and Macroeconomic Analysis

The activities of the center for the Macroeconomic Analysis and macroeconomic analysis include the research of the production flow on the level of the national economy, and on the level of the production branches. The Center is using the wide range of data from the base made during forty years of the work of IZIT and the more recent ones, based on the field research. The experts of the institute are using the conjuncture tests as the major way of work that has the significant importance during the creation of the estimates of the future economy flows. The process includes the methodology of the Conjuncture tests, that has the advantage over the classic methods to notify in due time the changes that are going on in the production, employing the large number of certain leading indicators, together with reliable anticipation of the streaming in the closer future.

The Center releases the specialized publications: The Conjuncture review (Outlook) of the Serbia/Montenegrin Economy - (monthly), and The Economic Outlook - (every 4th month on English). These publications are made for the state institutions and core diplomatic as well as for the various local and foreign companies. The users of these services can get the basic elements for the estimation of the judgment of the following production flows, and for conjuncture prognosis based on the three- or- six months period.

The judgement of the conjuncture streaming of IZIT is based on the following recourses:

• The conjuncture test
• Special inquires in the production
• The available statistic data and data of the NBS (National Bank of Serbia)
• Indicators of the development of the international conjuncture

The prognosis for the following period are made by IZIT based on:

• Development of the conjuncture streaming during the previous months
• Opinions and the prognosis of the producers
• Other chosen factors indicating the future production streaming (orders in industry, the supplement of the market, deals within the building industry, investments, etc)