|
5 June 2008 BELGRADE -- Experts of the Institute for Market Research (IZIT) Wednesday addressed Serbia's worrying trade deficit trends.
Serbia's imports in Q1 were double the amount of exports, and reached USD 4.6bn, up 42.6 pct. on 2007. At the same time, exports were up 39.6 pct.
IZIT Director Miloje Kanjevac noted that exports accounted for imports by 45.7 pct., a drop from 46.8 pct, adding that it is necessary to bear in mind that Serbian exports are dominated by raw materials and lower production stage products, while imports are dominated by consumer goods, worth about USD 4bn.
IZIT associate Saša Đogovic added Q1 trade deficit was reduced in exchange with Slovenia, Croatia and Austria, which can be interpreted as the consequence of calls to boycott goods from these countries.
At the same time, Serbia's trade surplus was realized with her immediate neighbors: Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia.
Serbia's major foreign partner is Russia, with whom trade went up by 50.1 pct, thus increasing that country's share in Serbia's overall trade from 12.5 to 13.3 pct
BELGRADE, Feb 5 (Tanjug) SERBIA'S FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT AT 6.7 BILLION DOLLARS
Serbia's foreign trade deficit in 2006 amounted to 6.7 billion dollars, which was an increase of 12.8 percent against 2005, when it was at 5.9 billion dollars, Director of the Market Research Institute (IZIT) Miloje Kanjevac said on Monday.
Serbia's foreign trade amounted to about 19.5 billion dollars in 2006, its export was at 6.4 billion dollars, which was an increase of 43 percent against 2005, and its import stood at 13. 2 billion dollars. In 2006, imports rose by 25.9 percent against 2005.
Serbia exported raw materials and intermediates at the value of 4.3 billion dollars and mostly imported consumer goods, Kanjevac said and warned that the foreign trade deficit would increase if this trend continued. He said that Serbia had the largest foreign trade deficit of 1.8 billion dollars with Russia, where it exported goods at the value of just 311 million dollars and imported goods, mostly fuels, at the value of 2.1 billion dollars.
November 3rd 2006: IZIT has stated that the current dinar-to-euro exchange rate is unrealistic.
The Director of the IZIT Institute for Market Research, Miloje Kanjevac, said that the current exchange rate is a good indicator of the supply and demand on the financial market, but does not show the realistic strength of the Serbian industry.
“The National Bank of Serbia must react in order to have the exchange rate support the current industrial situation better, which means that the central bank will have to take measures to make sure that the surplus of dinars does not lead to a further strengthening of the domestic currency. One euro is realistically worth 100 dinars.” Kanjevac said, adding that any further strengthening of the dinar will have negative effects on Serbian exporters.
He also said that the measures taken by the NBS to decrease the inflation rate can only have short-term effects for that purpose, but can create long-term problems, adding that a realistic inflation rate for the end of the year would be 9.3 percent.
9.1.2005. The business environment in Serbian economy at the end of November 2005 was evaluated slightly unsatisfactory than a month ago.
More
5.12.2005. EVALUATIONS OF THE BASIC ECONOMIC FLOWS
IZIT has, on the base of its original methodology,conducted researches in October at the representative sample connected to the forecasts of economic trands in the next three and six months and according to the following indicators:
Business climate,phisical extent of production inflow of domestic orders,inflow of export orders, stocks of ready made products and purchase prices.
Results of the researches are presented analitically for each noted index for both forecasted time periods.
More
11.11.2005. CURRENT ECONOMIC FLOWS AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER AND BEGINNING OF OCTOBER 2005.
The September business environment in Serbia was estimated better than a month ago.The improvement of the business climate is a result of positive tendencies in :
industrial production, export, domestic and foreign demand, structure of monetary mass, average net earnings and foreign currency reserves of NBS.
Certain positive tendencies are evident in dynamics of industrial production since the beginning of the second quartal 2005 – at the start less, but enetring the second quartal they are significantly evident. From this period obvious is the trend which softens the production deceleration, which was noticable at the beginning of this year. On the other side, disposal of goods at the foreign market had positive dynamics right from the start of this year. It must be said that this is a result of involving PDV, and much less part of better performances of Serbian economy. Positive too, is the weaker to moderate growth of inflow of orders from domestic or foreign markets with less oscillations during this year, and this has positive affects to dynamics of industrial production which is evident during the last few months at the export activities too.
Negative flows were registered with the following economic indicators: liquid assets of the business banks, too big fiscal burdenings,too expencive credits, non-liquidity in economy, monopolistic behaviors and the growth of producers’ prices of industrial products and retail prices
4.10.2005. Survey of economic flows in Serbia (August / September 2005)
Although the business climate in August was better compared to the previous month, it is still far from being optimistic, so that the economic streaming in Serbia at the end of August and beginning of September 2005 were characterized by the following tendencies
More
7.6.2005. Jun 05 Survey of economic flows in Serbia
10.5.2005. The basic characteristics of economic flows in March 2005 are as follows
12.4.2005. Evaluation of the global economic flows in Serbia
10.2.2005. ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC TRENDS FOR THE NEXT THREE AND SIX MONTHS
29.12.2004. ESTIMATION ON SERBIAN ECONOMY IN 2004.
During November and by the beginning of December of 2004, similar like during other months, there was certain positive moves in some sectors, but in the same tame remains with big problems.
During this period that presents end of the year, positive estimations were noticed with: extremely high breed in agriculture, statistically formulated increasing of industrial production; also increase with number of orders, increasing of liquid assets of business banks; improvement of monetary mass (in favor of non cash payments); also increasing of foreign currency reserves.
Apart from mentioned positive moves that are keen of presenting those figures, especially those from the agriculture because of good year, there are a lot of problems left, some of them from spheres of the economy are even increased, like: quite unsatisfactory level of using the capacities; stabile non – liquidity of economy because of lack of assets; big fiscal unburdening; lack – of - and expensive credits; inflator pressures and bigger increase of foreign trade deficit.
On these chronically problems that are not outputted, some of them are increasing like foreign currency deficit, and were influenced by different factors, among which the biggest is overwhelmed and, of course, bad influenced liberalization.
2005. Prognosis
30.11.2004. ECONOMY STREAMINGS IN OCTOBER AND BY THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER OF 2004.
Even with certain positive movements, the business ambient in Serbian economy is estimated as unsatisfactory.
From positive elements, these are to be considered: firstly, aldough slowed down, there is certain growth of industrial production, the multiplication of flows of domestic and foreign orders, growth of liquidity assets of business banks, strengthening of not cash in favor of cash transactions and slight increase of foreign currency reserves with NBS (National Bank of Serbia).
Factors that still are making business climate unfavorable are: exposed chronically non liquidity of economy, too high fiscal burden, constant presence of inflationary pressures, high rate of unemployment, enormous foreign trade deficit, absence of adequate financial results in agriculture sector. Frankly, there are some positive activities, which still are not enough to influence due to entire very obscure reality of economy.
29.10.2004. ECONOMIC FLOWS IN SEPTEMBER AND BY THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER 2004.
During September of 2004. there were certain positive movements in industry, agriculture, building, tourism, and even in retail business in Serbia. That does not mean that already present chronical problems and difficulties in businessing are not transparented in this period as well. However, even with this exposed increase, the industrial producing is still unadequate for the reasons of lack of full employment of production capacities, together with high level of non liquidity of legal subjects, lack of own assets, especially those in flow, high rates for credits, too high fiscal burdenings, the lack of necessary investments, the foreign trade deficite is on the level of alert because it directly leeds to owners crisis, and inflatory pressures are present as well.
30.9.2004. ECONOMIC STREAMINGS IN AUGUST AND BY THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER 2004.
There are some positive motions noted in Serbia economy. However, the slight stabilization of price rises concerning the producers and retailers is noticed, as well as slight rise of deposited money including the continuation of trend of reducing the amount of money in flow, the considerable rise of foreign currency reserves, the significant rise of the agriculture production and in tourism. But, most of these positive signals are resulted by the season and outer factors, and less as the result of measures by bearers of economic politics.
There are three main signs that gray color is still the symbol of Serbia economy: drop of industrial production, enlargement of the foreign trade deficit, and drop of the inhabitants spending power.
30.7.2004. ECONOMIC STREAMINGS IN JUNE AND BY THE BEGINNING 0F JULY 2004.
The business climate in June was slightly more favorable compared to previous month. It is the result of certain increase of industrial production, more intensified building activities and considerable increase of production in agriculture, especially in the branch of fruit production. However, these positive results are more caused by mayhem and outer circumstances, and much less instructed by the creators of economic politics based on the certain strategy of rise and development of Serbia economy. Those are the main reasons for the following: present inflationary pressure, enormous foreign trade deficit, continuing drop-trend of foreign currency reserves, and high rate of unemployment. All that is followed by slowing the process of privatization, restructuring of companies, but also by inadequate flow of foreign direct investments.
2.7.2004. On the regular press conference experts of IZIT presumed that business climate in Serbia is still characterized by the exposed inner and outer disequilibrium, followed by the insolvency of economy and reducing the assets of business banks. Disequilibrium is shown through strengthening of inflation pressure or more dynamic rise of producers prices in comparison with the retail prices and lack of urgently necessary financial assets from one, and expansion of foreign trade deficit from the other side. The flow of direct foreign investments is still on the very low level, while domestic economy, due to low accumulative ability is not in the possibility to employ total economy activities in more significant way. Due to agreed arrangement with the London club of trustees about the writing off our debts in 62%, credit rating of the country should increase, while economy will be unburdened by deep indebtedness. Therefore there is certain space created in purpose for building more adequate strategy of business increase and development, and especially export increase with avoiding the debt-owners crisis is created.
31.3.2004. The usual monthly press conference was released, where the experts from the IZIT came to the following conclusions:
Bad business climate from the previous year is continuing in 2004. Basic economic trend if excluded the seasonal oscillations kept the last years unfavorable tendencies. Economy is functioning with losses, without significant sources of accumulation and there is no financial assets provided for the following reproduction. Necessities and claims for credits are big, but the conditions for getting credits are still unfavorable.
The spending force of the inhabitants measured according to real salaries and pensions values in February are slightly increased compared to previous month, while compared to February 2003, the significant rise was achieved.
24.2.2004. December 2003. brings some better business climate based on increasing of the monetary mass and improvement of solvency within banking sector. That includes enlarged credit activities that stimulated increase of industrial production, foreign trade activities and floating in retail trade goods. However, total business ambient in the country is considerably bad due to political instability situation in the country and non- existence of strong market institutions. Therefore it can not be relied on entering direct foreign investments on domestic market, what minimizes possibilities for more serious activation of economic activities in the country.
28.1.2004. Performed the regular press conference by the IZIT experts:
Economic streams during 2003 have been in great measure decided by the high rate of non- commercial risk. Result to that is non- adequate inflow of direct foreign investments (what caused) reduction in industrial and building production, drastic fall of production in agriculture, and continuing spreading the trend of expanding the foreign trade deficit.
16.12.2003. Performed the regular press conference by the IZIT experts about the following economy streams and estimations for 2004. Despite the recovering of the economy streaming during the October, the total economy situation in whole country is still unsatisfying. The foreign trade deficit will exceed 4 billion $, the industrial production will be lower for approx. 3% compared to previous year, while the agriculture will suffer the fall of approx. 10%, etc.
|
